We kick off the month of June with scattered rain bands arriving off the Atlantic Ocean. Moisture levels have been increasing (compared to the holiday weekend). That sets us up for more frequent doses of rain along with potentially heavy batches, at times. The deeper tropical moisture we’re tapping into stretches from the NW Bahamas, extending south toward Cuba. For rain you actually need 3 things: moisture, lift, and instability. The unstable aspect will be coming from an upper disturbance that’s spinning off the Florida coast. No, it’s not a tropical worry, but the counter-clockwise spin will draw more of that moist air in our direction.
Much of south Florida is in the need of some wet weather. We ended May with a rain deficit of 3 to 4″ inches from Ft. Lauderdale to Miami. Parts of the region continue to get classified as either “abnormally dry” or simply under a “moderate drought”. As the week continues, there will be several opportunities to pick up some beneficial rainfall.
One of the weather features that’s going to persist is our onshore flow. Winds will keep on arriving from the east and southeast (for the foreseeable future). That flow is important because it will guide most of the upcoming episodes of rain. Overall, showers should generate near the southeast Florida coast from the late night into the early morning hours. Then, those winds will send activity inland, toward the Everglades, where more instability will occur. Why? Daytime heat and merging sea breeze boundaries will play a big role. That should result in most of the stormy weather focused on inland locations through the end of the week. Still, be prepared for occasional downpours as the pattern unfolds and we (now) get into the “real” south Florida Rainy Season.